Asian Development Outlook 2011 Update: Preparing for Demographic Transition

Cover
......Page 1
ISBN 9789290923923
......Page 172
Title Page
......Page 2
ISBN 9789290923916 ISSN 16554809......Page 3
Contents......Page 4
Foreword......Page 5
Acknowledgments......Page 7
Definitions......Page 8
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 9
ADO 2011 Update—Highlights......Page 10
Key Messages......Page 11
Continuing Growth Amid Global Uncertainty......Page 13
Outlook by Subregion......Page 15
Special Theme: Preparing for Demographic Transition......Page 17
Finding a more solid footing......Page 24
Rising domestic demand......Page 27
Increasing role of intraregional trade......Page 28
Shrinking current account surpluses......Page 29
Underlying strength, with risks......Page 34
In.ation channels......Page 35
Approaches to tackling in.ation......Page 36
Challenges to monetary policy......Page 40
Policy directions......Page 43
Recent capital .ows to developing Asia......Page 44
Intra-Asian cooperation—for today and tomorrow......Page 46
References......Page 47
Annex The external environment......Page 48
Recent developments in the major industrial countries......Page 49
Baseline international economy forecasts......Page 55
2. Preparing for demographic transition......Page 56
Introduction......Page 58
Three phases of the demographic transition......Page 61
Demographic diversity in Asia......Page 63
Economic support ratio......Page 65
How do changes in the population age structure a.ect economic growth?......Page 69
Population age structure and the channels of economic growth......Page 70
developing Asia......Page 71
The economic life cycle, demographic transition, and old-age support systems in Asia......Page 75
Labor-income pro.les......Page 76
Age reallocation system—Shifting resources from surplus to de.cit ages......Page 77
Old-age support systems for the elderly......Page 78
Reliance on savings......Page 81
Old-age support systems and policy responses to population aging......Page 82
Key .ndings and policy recommendations......Page 85
References......Page 87
Background papers......Page 88
Endnotes......Page 89
3. Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia......Page 90
Central Asia......Page 92
East Asia......Page 99
South Asia......Page 104
Southeast Asia......Page 110
The Paci.c......Page 118
Updated assessment......Page 126
Prospects......Page 128
Updated assessment......Page 131
Prospects......Page 133
Updated assessment......Page 136
Prospects......Page 139
Updated assessment......Page 142
Prospects......Page 144
Updated assessment......Page 146
Prospects......Page 148
Updated assessment......Page 150
Prospects......Page 152
Updated assessment......Page 154
Prospects......Page 156
Updated assessment......Page 158
Prospects......Page 160
Updated assessment......Page 162
Prospects......Page 164
Statistical Appendix
......Page 166
Statistical Notes and Tables
......Page 167