Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making)

Preface to the Second Edition......Page 2
General Introduction......Page 4
PART I: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW......Page 15
1. Multiattribute Evaluation (Ward Edwards and J. Robert Newman)......Page 18
2. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman)......Page 36
3. Coherence and Correspondence Theories in Judgment and Decision Making (Kenneth R. Hammond)......Page 54
4. Enhancing Diagnostic Decisions (John A. Swets)......Page 67
PART II: APPLICATIONS IN PUBLIC POLICY......Page 83
5. Illusions and Mirages in Public Policy (Richard H. Thaler)......Page 85
6. The Psychology of Sunk Cost (Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer)......Page 97
7. Value-Focused Thinking About Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro (Ralph L. Keeney and Timothy L. McDaniels)......Page 114
8. Making Better Use of Scientific Knowledge: Separating Truth from Justice (Kenneth R. Hammond, Lewis O. Harvey, Jr., and Reid Hastie)......Page 131
PART III: APPLICATIONS IN ECONOMICS......Page 144
9. Choices, Values, and Frames (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky)......Page 146
10. Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory (Richard P. Larrick, Richard E. Nisbett, and James N. Morgan)......Page 165
11. Does Studying Economics Inhibit Cooperation? (Robert E. Frank, Thomas Gilovich, and Dennis T. Regan)......Page 182
PART IV: LEGAL APPLICATIONS......Page 195
12. Leading Questions and the Eyewitness Report (Elizabeth F. Loftus)......Page 197
13. Explanation-Based Decision Making (Reid Hastie and Nancy Pennington)......Page 210
14. Decision Theory, Reasonable Doubt, and the Utility of Erroneous Acquittals (Terry Connolly)......Page 227
PART V: MEDICAL APPLICATIONS......Page 239
15. Capturing Policy in Hearing-Aid Decisions by Audiologists (Janet Doyle and Shane A. Thomas)......Page 242
16. Physicians' Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting (Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski and James B. Bushyhead)......Page 256
17. On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies (Barbara J. McNeil, Stephen G. Pauker, Harold C. Sox, Jr., and Amos Tversky)......Page 269
18. Enhanced Interpretation of Diagnostic Images (David J. Getty, Ronald M. Pickett, Carl J. D'Orsi, and John A. Swets)......Page 278
PART VI: EXPERTS......Page 297
19. Reducing the Influence of Irrelevant Information on Experienced Decision Makers (Gary J. Gaeth and James Shanteau)......Page 300
20. Expert Judgment: Some Necessary Conditions and an Example (Hillel J. Einhorn)......Page 319
21. The Expert Witness in Psychology and Psychiatry (David Faust and Jay Ziskin)......Page 331
PART VII: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION......Page 343
22. What Forecasts (Seem to) Mean (Baruch Fischhoff)......Page 346
23. Proper and Improper Linear Models (Robyn M. Dawes)......Page 371
24. Seven Components of Judgmental Forecasting Skill: Implications for Research and the Improvement of Forecasts (Thomas R. Stewart and Cynthia M. Lusk)......Page 388
PART VIII: BARGAINING AND NEGOTIATION......Page 412
25. The Judgment Policies of Negotiators and the Structure of Negotiation Problems (Jeryl L. Mumpower)......Page 415
26. The Effect of Agents and Mediators on Negotiation Outcomes (Max H. Bazerman, Margaret A. Neale, Kathleen L. Valley, Edward J. Zajac, and Yong Min Kim)......Page 434
PART IX: RISK......Page 452
27. Rish within Reason (Richard J. Zeckhauser and W. Kip Viscusi)......Page 455
28. Risk Perception and Communication (Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom, and Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel)......Page 469
29. Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy (Paul Slovic)......Page 490
PART X: RESEARCH METHODS......Page 504
30. Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There? (Baruch Fischhoff)......Page 506
31. The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (Peter Juslin)......Page 533
32. The A Priori Case Against Graphology: Methodological and Conceptual Issues (Maya Bar-Hillel and Gershon Ben-Shakhar)......Page 545
PART X: CRITIQUES AND NEW DIRECTIONS I......Page 559
33. The Two Camps on Rationality (Helmut Jungermann)......Page 562
34. On Cognitive Illusions and Their Implications (Ward Edwards and Detlof von Winterfeldt)......Page 579
35. Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality (Gerd Gigerenzer and Daniel G. Goldstein)......Page 608
36. Judgment and Decision Making in Social Context: Discourse Processes and Rational Inference (Denis J. Hilton and Ben R. Slugoski)......Page 638
PART XII: CRITIQUES AND NEW DIRECTIONS II......Page 664
37. Why We Still Use Our Heads Instead of Formulas: Toward an Integrative Approach (Benjamin Kleinmuntz)......Page 667
38. Nonconsequentialist Decisions (Jonathan Baron)......Page 698
39. Algebra and Process in the Modeling of Risky Choice (Lola L. Lopes)......Page 719
40. The Theory of Image Control: An Examination of the Central Conceptual Structure (Terry Connolly and Lee Roy Beach)......Page 741
Author Index......Page 752
Subject Index......Page 765